31 May 2023

The Extraneous Factors NFL Betting Strategies Guide

Tennessee Titans  Derrick Henry - New York Jets  Avery Williamson

The 2023/24 NFL season is on the horizon! This new season is primed to kick off in September, and for the fans, it is an incredibly exciting time! However, a few well-placed bets could make it even more so.

From the preseason through to the Super Bowl, there are a number of opportunities to place a wager and make the games a little more exhilarating. The teams play once a week, and the odds are released on a Sunday. For beginners and experienced bettors alike, betting on the NFL is a great choice worth considering. If you want to increase your odds of your bet coming in, then you need to employ the use of the right strategies, so read on to learn more.  

Tracking the Odds

NFL odds are constantly in flux; they are continually adjusting even as they are being posted by sportsbooks. A team could be a favourite in the days before the game, but it could all change before kick-off. Of course, you need to find the best odds for your bet, which is why finding the right time to bet is really a skill. This is why you must closely monitor the odds and do your best to stay on track with trends. You can see these odds looking at a sportsbook like the one from BetUS, which outlines NFL public betting.

When it comes to over and under bets – a bookmaker sets a specific number for the total amount of points scored during a game, and you place a bet on whether you think the actual number will be over or under this. Football has a scoring system; field goals are three points, and touchdowns are worth seven – if you count the extra point. This means that a lot of games in the NFL are decided by either three, six or seven points. These are significant numbers in the game and should be thought of as such. Line movement and point spread using those numbers tend to be key.

Using Extraneous Factors

Using extraneous factors, such as betting strategies or following betting trends, can be good and bad. These patterns are merely observational, and some bettors do not give them any credence, whereas others swear by them. While their validity is called under question, they can yield results. This is especially true for long-term trends that hint that these patterns are worth following.

The Home-Field Advantage

In the world of football, this is a hot topic, does playing on the home field really give an advantage? It is largely thought to, but how much of one? It is mostly believed to be worth only three points when it comes to NFL spreads. There is some speculation that it comes down to the fans; teams tend to have more fans present when playing at home, which helps to spur them on. This idea was reaffirmed during covid when there were little to no fans present, and this advantage all but disappeared. So, if you are thinking of placing a bet, it could be worth taking into account.

The Weather

Another environmental factor to take into consideration when placing a wager is the weather. The weather can actually have a pretty significant effect on the outcome of the game, and since football season runs from the autumn through the winter, this means that the weather can be pretty unpredictable. This does mean that there could be some rain and snow, and they do indeed affect the player's performances, but it is actually the wind that can be the most disruptive to the game. This is why you should keep an eye on the forecast in the days leading up to kick-off and factor this into your wagers.

Player Injuries

Football is obviously an incredibly physical sport, and, as such, there are injuries from time to time, and these injuries can put players out of commission, changing the line-up and therefore impacting the outcome of the game. Quarterback injuries tend to have the biggest bearing, followed closely by running backs and receivers. Other than these skilled players playing key positions, player injuries to other players don't tend to have much bearing at all. Keeping a close eye on the line-up is important. You should also look for cluster injuries that put several players on the bench in any one team. 

Prepare For The Next Season

There is, of course, more to betting on the NFL than simply using the extraneous factors listed above. You need to know the game, the teams, and the players, inside and out. However, if you are already pretty knowledgeable about the game, then applying these factors can certainly give you an edge. It is all about assessing the odds and making calculated guesses – well, that's all betting ever really is anyway, after all, but taking these factors into account can definitely help to provide you with a more comprehensive view.